Iran denies negotiating with the US as Oman brokers a deal over the Strait of Hormuz

Contradiction marks the most delicate diplomatic pulse in the Persian Gulf: while the Islamic Republic denies any direct channel with the United States, a Gulf official puts the probability that Iran and Oman will reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz before Friday at 50 per cent. The story is not the negotiation itself, but the gap between what is said and what is leaked.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is the artery through which an essential share of the world's crude passes. Any disruption, even partial or merely feared, is immediately reflected at the pumps in Spain and the rest of Europe. The possibility of an agreement between Iran and Oman, with the mediation both countries keep secret, is no minor matter of foreign policy: it is a direct variable in the cost of energy. The discrepancy between the official Iranian denial and the leaks from a Gulf official is, in itself, the story worth following.

The facts

The facts confirmed by sources from countries with opposing interests amount to the following: negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz exist; Tehran denies holding talks with the United States; a Gulf official, whose identity has not been revealed, calculates a 50 per cent probability that an agreement will be reached by Friday; and the Arab press links progress in those talks to Houthi attacks on tankers in the area.

On the first point, there is no discrepancy: the bilateral Iran-Oman talks exist and are advancing. On the second, the Iranian refusal to acknowledge a channel with Washington contrasts with the optimism conveyed by other capitals in the region. On the third, the 50 per cent figure is an estimate, not a verified datum, but it reveals that those following the process from within consider it mature enough to venture an outcome within days. On the fourth, the connection between Houthi attacks and the negotiating momentum suggests that pressure on maritime traffic has acted as a catalyst, not an obstacle.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. Its strategic importance is such that any threat to navigation triggers immediate reactions in energy markets and in the chancelleries of importing countries. The negotiation between Iran and Oman is not just another bilateral matter: it is the route that could defuse a crisis affecting global supply.

What each side says

**Iran's official position**, conveyed through its state media, holds that bilateral talks with Oman over the strait are progressing positively. The spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, according to those outlets, describes the process in a constructive tone. But the same official position denies that any talks with the United States exist. That denial matters because other, non-Iranian sources point in the opposite direction.

**The Pakistani press**, for its part, captures the central contradiction: Tehran denies talks with Washington while a Gulf official speaks of a 50 per cent chance of a deal by Friday. The Pakistani coverage, from a neighbouring country with direct interests in regional stability, presents both elements without resolving the contradiction.

**The Arab press** goes further and headlines an imminent agreement between Tehran and Oman, linking progress in the negotiations to Houthi attacks on tankers. That connection, absent from other coverage, suggests that the Houthi escalation — allies of Iran — against maritime traffic has created the context of urgency that is accelerating a deal.

**The Australian press** reports that negotiators are close to concluding an agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. The Australian coverage, from an energy-exporting country that competes with Gulf crude, presents the agreement as a fait accompli in the making.

US sources, both on the front page and in the world section, repeat the pattern of the Pakistani press: the Iranian denial and the Gulf official's estimate. Israeli, Turkish, Canadian, European, Filipino, Nigerian and British coverage follows the same template, with local nuances.

What the machine says

A sensor from the community ADS-B receiver network, which tracks air traffic over the strait's maritime corridor, was consulted. The query returned no record in the window reviewed. The sensor measures aircraft transponder signals, an indirect indicator of activity in the area, but it is not a conclusive source: air traffic does not equate to vessel movement, and the automatic identification system for ships, which would be the relevant data, requires paid access that was not checked. In any case, the absence of a record neither confirms nor denies anything about the state of the negotiations.

What we do not know

We do not know whether a direct communication channel exists between Iran and the United States. The official Iranian position denies it; the Gulf official's leaks suggest otherwise. We do not know who that official is, nor what interest he has in disseminating a 50 per cent estimate. We do not know what the possible agreement between Iran and Oman contains, nor what concessions it would imply for each side. We do not know whether the Friday deadline is real or a negotiating pressure tactic. We do not know what role the Houthi attacks play in the process: whether they are an Iranian lever, an autonomous action, or a factor both sides want to neutralise. We know nothing of the concrete terms, nor of the implementation timelines, nor of the guarantees that would be demanded.

The week ahead

Friday is a deadline no one has officially confirmed. If the agreement is announced, it will be necessary to verify what it contains and who concedes what. If it is not announced, the question will be whether the 50 per cent estimate was a trial balloon or a realistic calculation. The negotiation between Iran and Oman, with the shadow of Washington behind it, is a process in motion whose outcome will affect the price of energy and the stability of a region that concentrates the interests of all the great powers. The contradiction between the Iranian denial and the Gulf leaks is not noise to be cleared up: it is the very nature of a negotiation no one wants to fully acknowledge, but which everyone is watching.

Piece written and translated automatically from cross-checked sources in several countries.