Ceuta crisis weakens the left and strengthens the right
EL RIGOR · 9 de agosto de 2026, 21:45 · 2 min read
Cross-checked in sources from El Debate, El Español
A survey conducted by SocioMétrica for El Español reveals that the centre-right bloc, composed of the People's Party (PP), Vox, and Union of the Navarrese People (UPN), would secure 51% of the vote, overwhelmingly surpassing the left-wing bloc led by Pedro Sánchez. This outcome is primarily attributed to the migration crisis in Ceuta, where over 72,000 irregular migrants entered the city.
The survey highlights that the PP, under Alberto Núñez Feijóo, would continue to grow and obtain more seats than the combined total of all parties that supported Sánchez's investiture in November 2023. Meanwhile, the PSOE would partially halt its decline by capturing votes from Sumar, while Podemos and Sumar would lose support and reach historic lows.
Vox, on the other hand, would consolidate its spectacular growth, although it may have reached its peak.
Following the migration crisis in Ceuta, Prime Minister Sánchez refuses to interrupt his holidays to address questions in Parliament, instead delegating responsibility to several ministers. According to Sumar deputy Enrique Santiago, the director of the CNI, Esperanza Casteleiro, should appear before the parliamentary committee on state secrets to explain whether she alerted the government about the impending assault on Ceuta.
Currently, between 8,000 and 11,000 of the migrants who entered the city on the 30th remain there, wandering the streets and sleeping outdoors or on the beach. The crisis on the 30th exposed the extreme vulnerability of Ceuta’s border, making it impossible to rule out a repeat of the assault.
Spring is considered the most likely time for general elections, presenting a challenge for the formation led by Yolanda Díaz, which is running out of time to build its new political project. Gabriel Rufián's attempt to lead this space faces resistance from Izquierda Unida (IU) and his own party.
This poll reflects a complex political situation where the centre-right bloc strengthens while the left weakens. The migration crisis in Ceuta has had a significant impact on public perception and electoral preferences, favouring right-wing parties and harming those on the left. Spring appears as a critical moment for general elections, where the evolution of citizens' political preferences is expected to be reflected.
Piece prepared by the newsroom from cross-checked sources in several countries.